On 14 April 2015, which is thirteen months ago based on the day that I wrote this article, Ed Milband was odds-on favourite to be the next British prime minister. By polling day in May 2015, opinion polls and bookmakers had Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck. As we know, they got it wrong.

Polling for Brexit is in my opinion more interesting than the general election from last year because the opinion polls are at odds with the bookmakers.

Opinion polls show a near even split between Remain and Leave. On that basis, we assume that there is about a 50/50 chance of leaving the EU next month. But is that right? The betting markets (at 16 May) have Remain at 2/5 on and Leave at 12/5 against. This translates into an implied probability of 71% chance of remaining in the EU and a 29% chance of leaving. This is identical to the implied probability given by the betting markets when the referendum was called. So after Gove, Boris, Ian Duncan Smith, Obama and Hitler, there has been no change in the mood of the electorate according to the financial prediction markets. Surprisingly, in my view, the highest implied probability of leaving has been 39% which was last November.

Reverting back to opinion polls, Remain holds a three point lead according to the FT poll of polls published 8 May. The poll found support for Remain stood at 46%, while 43% intended to vote Leave, 11% were undecided or did not intend to vote.

The conclusion at this stage, some 3 weeks ahead of the vote on 23 June, is that it’s too close to call and perhaps the outcome will be dependent upon which side can best entice their supporters to the polling booth. Turnout is predicted at 50% – 60% (favourite at the bookies at 15/8) which is low in my view for such a vital issue. Makes me wonder who does not find this issue important enough to vote.

The Gibraltar vote has been forecast by the Chronicle at 88% to Remain on an 85% turnout. Probably predictable given the wider issues that will be faced by Gibraltar if there were to be a Brexit.

The question increasingly asked by our clients now is what will happen to the Gibraltar residential property market post 23 June.

Firstly, it is comforting that Chesterton’s first quarter results were ahead of target by some margin as the Brexit conundrum did not seem to have any impact on buyer’s intentions and this was across the price spectrum value wise. Furthernore, buyers were the normal spread of local, British and European whilst properties purchased were both resales and off-plan, which demonstrates confidence given that off-plan can take two years (well beyond 23 June) before completion.

However, we have now received offers on properties subject to there being no Brexit. So it would appear that the referendum is impacting the property market. Indeed, in one case we have been able to work with a client to enable an offer which varies subject to the referendum outcome. The vendor can then hedge some of the purchase price on the financial markets to reduce his exposure should there be a Brexit.

Just about the worst thing for a property market (other than taxes) is uncertainty. During periods of uncertainty decisions are delayed and there is a general slowdown in activity. Vendors refuse to reduce prices and purchasers are unwilling to raise their offers. So nothing happens. Everyone sits tight.

Hence as we near 23 June, we would expect activity to slow, or, at least offers to be based upon a completion after 23 June and only if there is not a Brexit.

If there were a Brexit, uncertainty would remain. No one knows for sure what deals the UK could negotiate with our current trading partners and how these deals might impact Gibraltar. It is thought that Spain would immediately cause problems at the border which would hinder, or even prevent, the 12,000 frontier workers from their right to freely enter and exit Gibraltar daily.

In the short term, that could place the local property market under huge strain as even if just 10% of the non-Spanish workers wanted to move in to Gibraltar from Spain, that’s 600 workers (plus their families) who would enter the property market. Gibraltar would struggle to cope with that, prices would rise.

Yet conversely, existing ex-pat residents may move out of Gibraltar, unwilling to wait to see how the new trade deals and political negotiations would take shape. This may be forced upon them if employers take early decisions to exit Gibraltar. So there could be a property surplus.

The impact of these two opposite forces may mean no great change in prices regardless of the outcome of the vote.

Indeed, there are some predicting a migration from an employee led economy to a more high net worth Monaco style economy if there were to be Brexit. Released from the shackles of the EU, Gibraltar would have a degree of flexibility in its own tax laws which could prove advantageous in the longer term.

But back to property prices. In a recent article in The Daily Telegraph, there was an analysis of UK property prices before and after an election undertaken by global investment firm Jeffries. The analysis, dating back to the 1983 UK general election, showed that on average, prices 12 months before an election are 4.9pc lower, while 12 months afterwards they are 8.6pc higher.

Our view is in line with that of Jeffries. There will be a temporary slowdown in completions for a short while. However, assuming there is no Brexit, we predict further price growth until the new buildings under construction are completed which will partially restore some of the supply demand imbalance that we have at the moment. If there is a Brexit, the market will stagnate until such time that there is certainty about the future.

Brave investors will purchase now and prey on worried vendors. Smart vendors can hedge their bets on the financial markets. As for everyone else reliant upon Gibraltar’s economy, they should vote to stay in the EU on 23 June as that gives Gibraltar the most certain future.