“So how is the property market?”  We must be asked that half a dozen times a day by a variety of clients old and new.  

It’s been 100 days since we woke up to the news that the UK had voted to leave the EU, which meant Gibraltar would leave too, against her will. Sterling and financial markets went into meltdown. The fear was that Gibraltar’s property market would as well. But it didn’t. And it hasn’t. In fact, it's the opposite.

This article is a brain dump of what we, as a business, have encountered in the last 100 days - what we feel and what we see.

Firstly, let’s look at our website statistics, comparing the three post referendum months of July, August and September 2016 to the same three months last year, Chestertons’ website statistics show a 48% increase in number of website users and a 59% increase in the recorded number of sessions. This growth will arise for a variety of reasons but what is apparent is that there is a marked increase in interest out there in Gibraltar property.

Secondly, we should look at post referendum transactions in residential property. We have sold in all locations and across the price spectrum. Two penthouses in Royal Ocean Plaza, off-plan in West One, Bourne Place, Ocean Spa Plaza and Imperial Ocean Spa Plaza for example. We have sold tenanted properties to investors as well as properties for owner occupation. We have not seen any post referendum price decreases either, in fact, to the contrary, the general shortage of available residential property is edging prices higher.

On the rental side the chronic lack of supply continues. At the time of writing we have just one available rental below £1,000 pcm.  We have a requirement for over twenty, three bedroom properties for an incoming company, a requirement that is close to impossible to fulfil. So Spain takes up the slack. The new properties under construction cannot be built fast enough. 6,000 non-Spanish employees of Gibraltar companies live in Spain, of which 2,800 are in the gaming industry. A number of these employees would relish moving to Gibraltar if there was anything suitable for their family needs and their pocket.  But until this happens, rents are rising.

The immediate post referendum fear of companies leaving Gibraltar and employees moving out, thus freeing up apartments, has just not materialised. Indeed, the opposite. For example, we are assisting a FTSE listed company moving in a substantial part of their business (and personnel) to Gibraltar, a post referendum decision.

Thirdly, mortgage funding. No property market can operate properly without liquidity provided by banks. It is pleasing to report that three Gibraltar banks visited me in September to promote their mortgage products, seemingly all three were keen to attract more business and lend more money. There is corroborative evidence of this from the UK. According to UK consumer group Which?'s analysis of Moneyfacts data in the UK, at the end of September there were 5,366 mortgage deals available, compared with 4,736 in June. The average mortgage rate on offer fell from 2.99 per cent at the start of June to 2.85 per cent at the end of September.

Fourthly, as a regular reader of the Gibraltar Chronicle, I cannot help noticing just how many job vacancies there are. A simple review of the last couple of week’s paper shows the following: the Ministry of Defence needs a Maths Tutor, the FSC is advertising for a Senior Legal Advisor, Advantage Insurance is looking for a financial controller and an actuarial modelling analyst, the Ministry of Financial Services & Gaming seeks a Director of Licensing & Regulation. Perez Rodriguez is seeking a newly qualified lawyer, the Bristol Hotel needs a part-time receptionist, and Gonzalez & Partners are advertising for an administrator. Walk up Main Street and there are notices for new staff being required at Mothercare, Marble Arc and Debenhams. Go onto Facebook and there are vacancies for a customer advisor at Newcastle Building Society, the Rock Hotel is currently seeking a full time banquets and events coordinator, Timeout Cafe is looking for an experienced chef and Trafalgar Sport’s Bar is seeking experienced bar staff. Finally in my tour of vacancy notices, the Royal Gibraltar Police began a recruitment drive on 19 September to attract new constables on a shade below £30,000 per annum. 

There are just 157 registered unemployed persons according to the government’s recent press release, an employment rate so low that Gibraltar is second only to Qatar in the world in its unemployed statistics. This tour of vacancy notices does not look like a country suffering from post-referendum depression.

Is it all so good? No, because uncertainty prevails (and will do for months if not years to come), especially in the finance sector where we know that some firms are establishing relationships in Dublin, Malta and Luxembourg, just in case the Brexit negotiations prevent Gibraltar business from trading in the EU. We are also seeing a rise in vacant office premises predominantly in the town area as certain companies prepare for their move to the nearly finished World Trade Center. We will have to get used to a surplus of commercial space as the market absorbs the 15,000 square metres at the WTC which will add some 20% extra office space to the market when it opens. Perhaps 10% will be absorbed by the pent up demand and the other 10% will become the new surplus but that was always the case and is not related to the referendum. The other challenge will be attracting construction finance to enable further construction to meet the demand arising from our growing economy. 

But the evidence is there. Property transactions continue at the same pace as before, prices edge higher, the rental market needs hundreds of new properties, vacancy boards have quality and quantity of posts and to the best of my knowledge no company has left Gibraltar as a result of the referendum.

Until further notice, it is business as usual.